North Dakota Oil Price Forecast Fell to $62 a Barrel

Energy operators in North Dakota should plan for lower revenues as the state anticipates a significant decline in crude prices.

Updated on Sept. 30, 2026 in Oil and Gas

Isometric editorial illustration showing simplified, repeating oil beam pumps across a geometric prairie landscape, representing state energy revenue forecasts. — North Dakota budget officials have lowered their projected crude oil price to $62 per barrel, reflecting expectations of easing global supply premiums. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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North Dakota budget officials have projected that the state's oil prices will drop to $62 a barrel by the end of the current biennium. This forecast marks a decrease from the $91 per barrel rate recorded during the most recent budget update.

Why it matters

The projected price decline reflects an assumption that geopolitical tensions, specifically the war with Iran, will be resolved, potentially easing supply premiums. Lower price realizations directly impact operating margins and investment capacity for local energy firms.

North Dakota budget officials reported a current price of $91 per barrel, which is expected to fall to $62 by the end of the current biennium. The outlook also includes an anticipated decrease in total oil production volumes over the same period.

The players

North Dakota Office of Management and Budget

The state agency responsible for overseeing fiscal policy and calculating official revenue projections.

The details

State budget analysts calculate these revenue estimates by tracking projected commodity price trajectories to ensure fiscal stability. A shift in global supply dynamics following a potential end to the war with Iran serves as the primary mechanism for this forecasted price softening. Operators must now account for these lower expected realizations in their capital expenditure planning and production forecasting for the next biennium.

September 30, 2026: Budget officials reported the price forecasts during a meeting in Bismarck.
End of biennium: The target date for North Dakota crude prices to reach the $62 level.

Market Landscape

This forecast updates the revenue assumptions for the current North Dakota state budget biennium cycle. It aligns with historical trends where state fiscal planning relies on projected commodity price sensitivity to geopolitical conflicts.

Operators should adjust their near-term cash flow models to account for a $29 per barrel spread between current rates and the projected biennial floor. Incorporate these price assumptions into upcoming drilling and maintenance budgets to mitigate the risk of revenue shortfalls.

The takeaway

The state is positioning for a period of lower commodity pricing, which suggests a shift in the competitive environment for North Dakota producers. Use this biennium projection as a benchmark to test your firm's break-even point against a $62 per barrel price floor.