Farm Bill Will Likely Pass Following 2026 Election

South Dakota operators should prepare for long-delayed agricultural policy shifts arriving in early 2027.

Updated on Sept. 22, 2026 in Agriculture

Isometric editorial illustration of a metal grain silo on a flat prairie landscape, representing agricultural policy and federal support systems. — A new U.S. Farm Bill is expected to pass by the end of 2026, ending an eight-year legislative drought for agricultural policy and funding. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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As U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson prepares to exit office in January 2027, forecasts indicate a greater than 70% probability that a new Farm Bill will pass by the end of 2026. This legislation would end a legislative drought for the agricultural sector that has persisted since 2018.

Why it matters

The passage of a long-overdue Farm Bill will resolve significant uncertainty regarding federal agricultural supports and the SNAP program. Businesses in South Dakota must now anticipate a shift in compliance requirements and funding allocations as a new Congressional cohort takes office.

Analysts estimate a 70% probability of passing the Farm Bill and a 95% likelihood of an appropriations package to avert government shutdown. These efforts follow a cycle where 24 U.S. House legislators lost their primary elections.

The players

Dusty Johnson

A U.S. Representative concluding eight years of service who has highlighted legislative gridlock.

Mitch McConnell

A U.S. Senator whose committee vote serves as a key hurdle for advancing agricultural legislation.

The details

The Farm Bill has remained stalled in committee due to partisan tie votes and disputes over SNAP program cuts. While the House has passed its version of the legislation, the Senate's committee process requires further consensus before a final bill reaches the floor. Meanwhile, operators reliant on seasonal E15 gasoline sales continue to operate under emergency waivers that have been renewed annually since 2022.

2018: The last year a full Farm Bill was signed into law.
2022: The start of yearly emergency waivers for E15 fuel.
September 21, 2026: Dusty Johnson addressed the policy climate at a Rotary panel.
November 2026: Midterm elections are scheduled to occur.
January 2027: A new Congressional crop assumes office.

Market Landscape

The impending legislative shift follows the expiration of the 2018 Farm Bill and the extended reliance on ad-hoc emergency waivers for E15 fuel. This environment underscores a broader trend of legislative stalling in Washington that has directly impacted long-term agricultural planning.

Operators should review their long-term federal grant and subsidy assumptions against the 70% probability of new legislation. Monitor the appropriations package status closely to gauge the risk of near-term government shutdowns affecting regional USDA service centers.

The takeaway

Legislative volatility in Washington D.C. makes long-term reliance on existing Farm Bill programs risky for South Dakota businesses. Maintain close contact with trade associations to track the specific reconciliation of SNAP provisions as the 2027 Congressional session approaches.