Analysts Evaluated Pharma Patent Cliff Strategies
Investors are weighing the success of pipeline diversification efforts against impending patent losses for major drugmakers.
Updated on Oct. 2, 2026 in Healthcare
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BMO Capital Markets issued a report comparing the risk management strategies of Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb as both companies face a 2028 patent cliff for key revenue drivers. While Merck's share price rose 43% year-to-date, analysts expressed concern over the outlook for Bristol Myers Squibb's pipeline transition.
Why it matters
Operators in the healthcare sector must monitor these R&D transitions, as major revenue threats force pharmaceutical giants to pivot through high-stakes acquisitions and clinical trials. These shifts redefine market competition and supply chain priorities for companies relying on stable product lifecycles.
Merck faces $33 billion in revenue at risk from Keytruda vs. Bristol Myers Squibb's $24.4 billion in combined global sales for Opdivo and Eliquis. Merck's share price rose 43% between January 1, 2026, and September 9, 2026.
The players
Merck
A multinational pharmaceutical company focused on human health through oncology and vaccine innovation.
Bristol Myers Squibb
A global biopharmaceutical company specializing in oncology, hematology, and immunology therapeutics.
BMO Capital Markets
A financial services firm providing investment banking and equity research to institutional clients.
The details
Merck is working to replace revenue with new products like intismeran autogene, Winrevair, and sac-TMT, following its $10.8 billion acquisition of Prometheus Biosciences. Conversely, Bristol Myers Squibb is attempting to stabilize its portfolio through the $14 billion purchase of Karuna Therapeutics. The firm is currently waiting for clinical readouts on treatments like milvexian and Cobenfy to offset future losses.
Timeline
Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb acquired Prometheus and Karuna, respectively, in 2023.
Cobenfy generated $155 million in sales during 2025.
BMO analysts issued their report regarding pharma revenue risk on September 9, 2026.
Bristol Myers Squibb expects a clinical readout for Cobenfy in Alzheimer's disease in early 2027.
Keytruda, Opdivo, and Eliquis face loss of exclusivity at the end of 2028.
Market Landscape
The pharmaceutical industry is currently facing a period of intense revenue consolidation leading up to the 2028 patent cliff. This report underscores how firms like Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb are attempting to manage the transition through large-scale R&D and acquisitions.
Business operators in the life sciences supply chain should monitor the clinical progress of the aforementioned pipelines, as successful or failed readouts will dictate procurement volumes. Firms should watch for these shifts to adjust their own R&D budgeting and partnership strategies accordingly.
The takeaway
Large-scale acquisitions do not guarantee stability, as analysts are heavily scrutinizing the clinical viability of new assets versus established revenue. Operators should track the 2027 Cobenfy clinical readout as a key signal for the future competitive health of the pharmaceutical market.
What happens next
Bristol Myers Squibb is expected to release a clinical readout for Cobenfy in Alzheimer's disease in early 2027.
Further reading
For more on industry shifts, see Healthcare.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Pharma.
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