Freight Load Ratios Cooled in Summer 2026
Logistics operators must navigate softening demand and regulatory shifts impacting fleet utilization.
Updated on Sept. 29, 2026 in Transportation
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The U.S. freight load-to-truck ratio cooled from 2-to-1 in early 2025 to a range of 1.3-to-1.5 during July and August 2026. This shift marks a broader recalibration in the transportation sector, affecting capacity management for carriers across the country.
Why it matters
Operators are facing a confluence of decreased bakery freight volumes and shifts in consumer food demand, exacerbated by GLP-1 weight-loss medication usage. Meanwhile, tighter FMCSA enforcement has pressured industry participants, leading to a net decrease in national capacity of 2% to 3%.
The current 1.3-to-1.5 load-to-truck ratio reflects a softening from the 2-to-1 benchmark observed in early 2025. Additionally, bakery freight volumes have contracted 10% as the industry manages the dual pressures of capacity reductions and shifting consumer consumption patterns.
The players
Covenant Logistics Group
A logistics and transportation provider operating a diversified fleet of heavy-duty trucks.
FMCSA
The federal agency responsible for regulating and enforcing safety standards within the trucking industry.
The details
Covenant Logistics Group has pivoted away from commoditized over-the-road trucking, retaining roughly 100 solo units while scaling its specialized poultry division. The firm, which relies on a fleet mix of 60% Freightliner and 40% Peterbilt, manages bird hauls with an average distance of 48 miles. To maintain utilization, the company partners with freight forwarders, a strategy aimed at offsetting the volatility in traditional over-the-road freight markets.
Timeline
2023: Covenant Logistics Group acquired Lou Thompson.
First half of 2025: Load-to-truck ratios were approximately 2-to-1.
July and August 2026: Load-to-truck ratios shifted to 1.3-to-1.5.
Next 18 months: Team-operated trucks require replacement.
Through 2032: Data center construction projects continue.
Market Landscape
Current freight market conditions reflect a cooling period that contrasts with the expected 3-to-4-year supercycle fueled by manufacturing and data center expansion. This cycle is anticipated to persist through at least 2032 as server infrastructure requires regular 3-to-5-year replenishment.
Carriers should evaluate asset utilization strategies in light of the 1.3-to-1.5 load-to-truck ratio and shifting food freight volumes. Management teams must monitor the impact of FMCSA enforcement actions and consumer health trends on volume projections to adjust capacity accordingly.
The takeaway
Operators must balance the immediate cooling of freight demand with long-term capital investments necessitated by the ongoing data center construction surge. Monitor regional load-to-truck metrics to determine if specialized hauling units are effectively offsetting the decline in general commoditized freight.
Further reading
For broader insights on industry shifts, visit the Transportation section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by FreightWaves.
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