Analysts Raised Chevron and ExxonMobil Price Forecasts
The adjustments follow expectations for strong third-quarter refining results from the major energy firms.
Updated on Sept. 28, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman increased price forecasts for both Chevron and ExxonMobil, citing anticipated strength in refining performance. The analyst expects both companies to outperform third-quarter earnings estimates.
Why it matters
The upward revision highlights the significant role that refining margins continue to play in the financial health and valuation of integrated oil and gas supermajors. These results serve as a barometer for profitability across the broader energy sector heading into the end of the year.
Analyst Jason Gabelman raised Chevron's price target to $215 from $205 and ExxonMobil's to $180 from $168, reflecting a bullish outlook on Q3 earnings. Following the report, Chevron shares climbed 1.07% to $206.64, while ExxonMobil shares rose 1.03% to $162.25.
The players
Jason Gabelman
An equity research analyst at TD Cowen specializing in the energy sector.
Chevron
A global integrated energy company focused on oil and gas exploration, refining, and production.
ExxonMobil
A multinational oil and gas corporation that operates one of the world's largest refining networks.
The details
The revised forecasts are driven by expectations that improved refining throughput and efficiency will anchor results despite recent accounting and permitting complexities in operational regions like Texas, Guyana, and Venezuela. Chevron is also monitoring a target production milestone of 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which the firm expects will help generate $1 billion in free cash flow.
Timeline
September 28, 2026: Analyst released updated price forecasts for Chevron and ExxonMobil.
Q3 2026: Period covered by the analyst for earnings estimates.
Market Landscape
This analyst action follows the standard pattern of pre-earnings price target adjustments seen ahead of the 2026 Q3 earnings season. It reflects the ongoing market focus on refining output as a primary driver of valuations for integrated energy supermajors.
Operators should monitor upcoming third-quarter earnings reports to gauge how refining margin volatility impacts the broader energy supply chain. Owners must consider whether these sector-wide valuation shifts indicate tightening supply or changing demand patterns for energy inputs.
The takeaway
The analyst shift underscores the impact of refining operational efficiency on top-tier energy stocks. Operators should track the production targets and margin guidance issued by these majors during upcoming quarterly disclosures to refine their own cost-of-energy projections.
Further reading
For more on sector trends, visit the Oil and Gas section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Benzinga.
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