U.S. Leading Economic Index Fell 0.1% in August
Business operators should prepare for sluggish growth as leading indicators point to potential headwinds.
Updated on Sept. 23, 2026 in Economic Indicators
Live Poll
Do you feel your household's financial situation is getting better or worse this year?
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index decreased 0.1% to 99.5 in August 2026, while the Coincident Economic Index rose 0.1% during the same period. The data suggests a cooling environment for national businesses despite modest gains in current activity.
Why it matters
The six-month growth rate for the leading index has slipped into negative territory, signaling caution for firms across the country. Weak consumer expectations and fewer building permits are creating a drag that currently offsets strength in financial components.
The Leading Economic Index dropped 0.1% in August 2026 to a value of 99.5. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index rose 0.1%, supported by gains in employment, income, industrial production, and trade sales.
The players
The Conference Board
An independent business membership and research organization that produces economic forecasts and indicators for private sector operators.
The details
The divergence between the leading and coincident indexes highlights a gap between current performance and future expectations. While present-day metrics remain resilient, the leading index—which incorporates building permits and jobless claims—reveals structural weakness that poses risks for rural businesses and farm households. The Conference Board projects real U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.
Timeline
The Leading Economic Index declined 0.1% throughout August 2026.
Real U.S. economic growth is projected at 1.9% for 2026.
Real U.S. economic growth is projected at 1.8% for 2027.
Market Landscape
This decline follows the established methodology of The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, which serves as a bellwether for shifts in the national business cycle. The cooling trends reflect a broader, documented pattern of moderating economic growth through 2027.
Business owners should review their supply chain forecasts and inventory commitments in light of the negative six-month growth signal. Monitor the building permit and consumer expectation components of your regional market to adjust operational budgets for 2027.
The takeaway
The contraction in the leading index serves as a caution signal for business planning, particularly for those sensitive to building activity and consumer sentiment. Operators should track the six-month growth rate of their regional leading indicators as a primary metric for determining capital expenditure timelines.
Further reading
For more information on current trends, visit our Economic Indicators section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by RFD-TV.
Live Poll
Do you feel your household's financial situation is getting better or worse this year?
