Hazardous Waste Will Reach 37 Million Tons by 2033
Manufacturing operators must prepare for rising disposal costs as hazardous waste volumes climb through 2033.
Updated on Sept. 23, 2026 in Manufacturing
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Should the U.S. prioritize increased domestic industrial production despite the environmental risk of hazardous waste?
U.S. hazardous waste generation will grow by 5 million tons to reach 37.4 million tons by 2033, driven largely by increased domestic production in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and steel. Manufacturing accounted for 90% of total waste generated in 2023.
Why it matters
Reshoring initiatives and federal fabrication funding are fueling higher industrial output, which creates a potential capacity bottleneck in the waste processing sector. A projected 1% shortfall in disposal capacity could jeopardize $27.5 billion in economic output.
The hazardous waste sector generated $9 billion in revenue in 2023, up from $3.6 billion in 2021. With 90% of waste originating from manufacturing, the industry relies on a current national infrastructure of 17 commercial landfills, 12 energy recovery facilities, and 11 incinerators.
The players
Veolia
A global environmental services firm that provides waste, water, and energy management solutions to industrial and municipal clients.
3M
A diversified technology company that manufactures products for the healthcare, consumer, and industrial sectors.
Alcoa
A global leader in bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products serving various industrial markets.
The details
Manufacturers are increasingly shifting from on-site waste handling to outsourcing disposal, which puts additional pressure on commercial providers. Major investments are underway to address this, including Veolia's new 100,000-ton-per-year incinerator in Arkansas. While the EPA's 2025 assessment suggests sufficient capacity through 2049, site-specific capacity gaps could still disrupt supply chains for individual producers.
Timeline
2020: Veolia acquired an Arkansas site from Alcoa.
2021: 3M closed a Minnesota incinerator.
2023: The hazardous waste sector generated $9 billion in revenue.
2025: The EPA released its latest hazardous waste capacity assessment.
2033: Projected target date for U.S. hazardous waste reaching 37.4 million tons.
Market Landscape
The projected waste surge follows the pattern of increased industrial activity tracked in the EPA's 2025 hazardous waste capacity assessment. While the assessment confirms long-term sufficiency, it highlights the fragility of local disposal availability amidst ongoing reshoring efforts.
Operators should re-evaluate their long-term waste disposal contracts to secure capacity and mitigate price volatility as industrial demand increases. Procurement teams should monitor for site-specific disposal shortages that could cause costly production stoppages.
The takeaway
Manufacturing growth is outpacing historical disposal trends, making waste management a critical component of supply chain stability. Operators should assess their reliance on single-site disposal facilities and diversify their vendor base before 2033 to hedge against projected capacity tightening.
Further reading
For more on industry infrastructure, see Manufacturing.
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Should the U.S. prioritize increased domestic industrial production despite the environmental risk of hazardous waste?
