Zambia Signed Agreement to Supply 540,000 Tonnes of Maize
The deal helps Kenyan buyers bypass trade barriers and high tariffs on South African imports.
Updated on Oct. 1, 2026 in International Trade
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On September 10, 2026, Zambia’s Food Reserve Agency signed a deal to ship 540,000 tonnes of white maize to Kenya to mitigate a supply shortage. Kenya, which faces a projected 40% decline in its 2026 harvest, is pivoting to regional partners due to legal and tariff restrictions on South African suppliers.
Why it matters
Kenya’s annual demand of over 4.5 million tonnes remains unmet, forcing importers to navigate complex trade bloc restrictions and GMO bans that price out South African competitors. Regional trade agreements now serve as the primary hedge against high tariffs and supply volatility.
Zambia committed 540,000 tonnes of maize to Kenya, significantly higher than the 500,000-tonne average annual import volume recorded between 2021 and 2025. This move sidesteps a 50% tariff currently imposed on South African maize.
The players
Food Reserve Agency
The Zambian state entity responsible for maintaining national food security stocks and managing grain export logistics.
Cereal Millers Association
An industry group representing Kenyan grain processors currently advocating for duty-free import status for up to 3 million tonnes of maize.
The details
The export agreement mandates delivery in six specific lots, utilizing regional supply chains to bypass trade bloc exclusions that disadvantage non-COMESA members like South Africa. Because 85% of South African production is genetically modified, those exporters face onerous, stage-by-stage supply chain verification to meet Kenyan non-GMO mandates enforced since March 2025. Conversely, reliance on COMESA-aligned partners like Zambia and Tanzania provides a more streamlined compliance path for Kenyan millers.
Timeline
Kenya imported an average of 500,000 tonnes of maize annually from 2021 to 2025.
A Kenyan Court of Appeal suspended the import of genetically modified products in March 2025.
South Africa exported 1.1 million tonnes of maize between May and September 2026.
Zambia and Kenya signed the maize export agreement on September 10, 2026.
The marketing season for South African maize exports concludes in April 2027.
Market Landscape
This development follows the precedent set by the March 2025 Kenyan Court of Appeal ruling on genetically modified products, which effectively barred the majority of South African supply. It highlights the growing importance of regional trade blocs like COMESA as primary supply channels.
Operators in the grain sector should monitor potential duty-free import thresholds, as the Cereal Millers Association is actively lobbying for 3 million tonnes of relief. Tightening supply chains and GMO verification requirements make regional trade partnerships essential for near-term inventory planning.
The takeaway
Kenya’s projected 40% harvest drop signals a long-term reliance on non-GMO regional suppliers to meet domestic demand. Millers and traders should track COMESA trade policy updates to anticipate future shifts in regional duty-free import quotas.
Further reading
For more on shifting trade alliances and grain supply chains, visit International Trade.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Ecofin Agency.
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