Banks Created New Barometers to Track Policy Risk
Wall Street firms have launched models to help operators forecast unpredictable political moves.
Updated on Sept. 30, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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JPMorgan and Signum Global Advisers have introduced new diagnostic tools to predict U.S. leadership behavior during international negotiations. The indices analyze market data to gauge potential shifts in policy as the U.S. engages in diplomatic talks with Iran.
Why it matters
For operators, these barometers offer a quantifiable way to monitor how shifting geopolitical tensions and market volatility might influence regulatory or trade environments. The indexes provide a systematic method to anticipate executive decisions that could impact global supply chains and capital costs.
JPMorgan utilizes three primary variables to power its model, while Signum Global Advisers employs a 4-variable index to track sensitivity to market conditions. Both tools rely on historical Z scores to provide context against prior periods.
The players
JPMorgan
A global financial services institution that provides investment banking and asset management services.
Signum Global Advisers
A research firm that specializes in political risk and its impact on global financial markets.
The details
The models calculate risk by tracking data points like Brent crude prices, S&P 500 performance, and 10-year Treasury yields. By monitoring these metrics, firms aim to quantify the relationship between market conditions and government actions, such as the diplomatic proposal recently confirmed by an Iranian official. These tools allow analysts to translate complex political signaling into standardized figures that mirror broader economic sentiment.
Timeline
Brent crude oil prices experienced a one-day drop on Monday, September 28, 2026.
An Iranian official confirmed the receipt of a U.S. proposal on Tuesday, September 29, 2026.
Market Landscape
These new indices mark a shift in how financial institutions attempt to model unpredictable geopolitical outcomes. They follow a long-standing industry trend of integrating traditional market metrics with political risk analysis to guide corporate strategy.
Operators should watch these indices as signals for near-term volatility in energy and capital costs. Monitor these models alongside traditional industry-specific indicators to refine your sensitivity to potential policy shifts in international markets.
The takeaway
These barometers emphasize the need to look beyond headline news and track the underlying market variables that often precede political action. Keep a close watch on Brent crude and 10-year yield fluctuations as leading indicators for potential changes in your own international operating environment.
Further reading
For more on the metrics influencing global business, see our coverage of Economic Indicators.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Morningstar.
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