Economists Have Shifted Global Growth Expectations
Business operators should prepare for rising food costs and increased geoeconomic fragmentation in the coming year.
Updated on Sept. 29, 2026 in Economics — General
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The World Economic Forum published its latest Chief Economists' Outlook, revealing that 56% of surveyed experts now anticipate a stable or improving global economy. This marks a notable change from May 2026, when 89% of these same experts predicted that global economic conditions would weaken.
Why it matters
Operators face a transition in economic drivers as reliance on fiscal support wanes, shifting from 69% of economists crediting it for resilience since 2020 to only 28% expecting it to drive future stability. Businesses must navigate rising input prices, particularly food, alongside intensified global trade barriers.
While 56% of economists see a stable global outlook, 88% project higher food costs and 77% expect increased geoeconomic fragmentation over the next 12 months. Fiscal support's role as a primary resilience factor is expected to drop from 69% since 2020 to just 28% in the year ahead.
The players
World Economic Forum
An international non-governmental organization that hosts global meetings and publishes research on economic and social issues.
Centre for the New Economy and Society
A division within the World Economic Forum focused on analyzing labor markets, economic growth, and the future of work.
The details
The report highlights a rapid acceleration in technology and trade volatility that will impact operational planning. Nearly all respondents (97%) anticipate increased AI adoption, while 69% believe Chinese large language models will reach parity with those from the United States within the next year. Simultaneously, 55% of economists anticipate tariff increases in the United States, forcing firms to re-evaluate supply chain dependencies.
Timeline
Fiscal support became the primary driver of economic resilience starting in 2020.
In May 2026, 89% of economists expected economic conditions to weaken.
The World Economic Forum conducted its survey from August 4 to August 20, 2026.
The Chief Economists' Outlook report was published on September 29, 2026.
Most forecasts, including those for AI adoption, cover the next 12 months.
Market Landscape
The findings signal a transition away from the heavy reliance on the 2020 pandemic-era fiscal stimulus measures that sustained markets for years. This shift reflects a pivot toward navigating trade fragmentation and rapid AI integration as the primary forces shaping global competition.
Operators should immediately factor higher food costs into their budgeting and revise supply chain strategies to account for expected U.S. tariff increases. Monitor the rapid parity of AI development between China and the United States as a key signal for technology procurement.
The takeaway
The data confirms that the era of relying on aggressive fiscal support to buoy economic conditions is concluding. Owners should track the 88% consensus on rising food costs when setting pricing strategies for the next four quarters.
Further reading
For broader trends impacting international markets, review the latest updates in Economics — General.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Scoop.
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