Societe Generale Lowered Euro Exchange Rate Forecast
Global businesses importing from the US will face higher costs as the dollar maintains its strength.
Updated on Sept. 28, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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Societe Generale has revised its EUR/USD exchange rate forecast to 1.15, signaling a continued shift in global currency valuations. This adjustment aligns with a broader market consensus movement from 1.20 to 1.16 as firms prepare for persistent US dollar strength.
Why it matters
Robust US inflation and resilient economic data have bolstered the dollar, creating a risk-averse environment that elevates commodity and oil prices. For operators, this translates to increased import costs and shifting margins for international supply chains.
The market consensus for the EUR/USD pair has dropped to 1.16 from an initial 1.20 set at the start of 2026. The dollar index currently sits 0.7% away from a near-2026 high, with the euro-dollar pair just 0.5% from reaching a new low.
The players
Societe Generale
A major French multinational financial services company providing global investment banking and financial advisory services.
The details
The downward revision is driven by strong US economic data and inflation figures, which have reinforced a dollar-bullish environment. Elevated costs for global commodities, including oil, have further constrained the euro as investors flock to the dollar's relative stability. Businesses relying on cross-border transactions should monitor these shifts as currency fluctuations tighten input cost predictability.
Timeline
At the start of 2026, the consensus forecast for the EUR/USD exchange rate was 1.20.
Societe Generale published its updated 1.15 forecast in September 2026.
Market Landscape
This revision reflects the historical correlation between rising US commodity pricing and dollar strength. It signals a move away from previously bullish euro views as the market reacts to current US real-economy data.
Operators should review their currency hedging strategies and prepare for tighter margins on US-sourced goods and commodities. Budgeting should account for the potential of the dollar reaching new relative highs in the near term.
The takeaway
The sustained strength of the US dollar suggests that import costs for businesses operating internationally are likely to remain elevated. Monitor the dollar index's proximity to its 2026 highs as a signal for potential volatility in your procurement pricing.
Further reading
For broader trends impacting currency markets, monitor the Economic Indicators section.
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Will the U.S. dollar continue to strengthen against the Euro through the end of 2026?
