Middle East Oil Prices Stayed High on Supply Constraints
Business operators face sustained energy costs as regional refinery and LNG capacity remains well below pre-war levels.
Updated on Sept. 24, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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RHB Research projects that Brent crude will remain elevated at US$89 per barrel in 2026, citing significant regional supply bottlenecks. These constraints affect energy-intensive industries as production capacity recovers slowly from conflict-related damage.
Why it matters
Persistent capacity limits, including 17% of Qatar LNG capacity currently offline, mean businesses should prepare for higher input costs through at least next year. The recovery of regional energy throughput is physically capped by the need for extensive repairs to damaged facilities.
Middle East refinery output hit 7.3 million barrels per day in August 2026, failing to reach the pre-war benchmark of 9.9 million barrels per day. Brent crude is forecast to average US$89 per barrel this year before moderating to US$72 per barrel in 2027.
The players
RHB Research
An investment research firm providing financial analysis and coverage of energy sector market performance.
The details
Supply recovery is throttled by physical damage to critical infrastructure, such as Qatar LNG trains that require up to three years for full repair. While five of nine companies tracked by the research firm outperformed earnings in Q2 2026, four others missed targets, highlighting the uneven impact of these capacity constraints across the energy sector.
Timeline
August 2026: Middle East refinery runs reached 7.3 million barrels per day.
Q2 2026: Companies reported earnings results.
Q4 2026: The recovery of regional energy supply is expected to begin.
Q2 2027: Energy throughput is projected to return to pre-war levels.
Next three years: Repairs to damaged Qatar LNG trains are estimated to take this long.
Market Landscape
This slow energy recovery tracks with the post-2003 regional energy supply disruption recovery patterns, where physical infrastructure damage necessitates a multi-year path back to normal throughput. The current environment forces operators to account for prolonged supply-side volatility despite easing geopolitical tensions.
Businesses should adjust procurement budgets to account for sustained energy-linked price volatility through the 2026 calendar year. Management teams should track regional throughput metrics to identify potential supply easing points by Q4 2026.
The takeaway
Energy supply recovery will be dictated by physical repair timelines rather than geopolitical shifts, creating a long-term cost floor for operators. Track quarterly throughput data as a primary signal for potential easing in energy prices starting in Q4 2026.
Further reading
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